Four matchdays into the 2026/27 Premier League season, the table tells a stark story: Arsenal and Manchester City are the only sides with a perfect 12 points, already four clear of third-placed Hull City and five ahead of the rest. While it’s early, the gap and the struggles of traditional “Big Six” rivals have sparked debate over whether this is turning into a two-horse title race.


Why Arsenal and City Look Ahead

Arsenal: Champions Raising the Bar

  • Defending champions and pre-season favourites, Arsenal opened with a commanding 3–0 Community Shield win over City.
  • In the league, they’ve beaten Coventry, Aston Villa, Chelsea, and Sunderland, extending their top-flight winning streak to nine games dating back to last season.
  • Their only 90-minute defeat in any competition since April came against City, underlining remarkable consistency under Mikel Arteta.
  • Defensively, they’ve conceded just one goal in four league games, the joint-best record in the division.


Manchester City: New Era, Same Ruthlessness

  • With Pep Guardiola departed after a decade and six titles (including a Treble), Enzo Maresca, his former assistant, took charge and has guided City to four straight league wins.
  • Victories over Bournemouth, Crystal Palace, Coventry, and a controversial 1–0 at Manchester United keep them level on points with Arsenal.
  • Erling Haaland’s derby winner stood despite an offside controversy later acknowledged by the PGMOL, but the three points stood.
  • Like Arsenal, City have been tight at the back, conceding only two goals so far.


The Chasing Pack Stumbling

Pre-season, bookmakers listed Chelsea, Liverpool, and Manchester United as the next most likely title contenders, with Tottenham further back. Yet their starts have been far from convincing:

  • Chelsea (5th): One defeat, 10 goals scored, but nine conceded, the fourth-worst defensive record. They’ve allowed 2+ goals in each of their first four league games for the first time since 2015–16.
  • Liverpool (7th): Unbeaten but with three draws in four; it’s only the third time in 63 seasons they’ve failed to win either of their first two home league matches.
  • Manchester United (13th): Four points, equalling their worst-ever Premier League start (1992–93). They lead the league in shots (84) but have scored and conceded seven each.
  • Tottenham (17th): After two 17th-place finishes, Spurs hoped for improvement but sit 17th again, failing to score in their first four league games for the first time in club history.

Even Hull City, surprise third-place occupants, are widely seen as early overachievers rather than genuine title threats.


Under the Hood: Not Total Dominance (Yet)

Despite identical 12-point starts, underlying metrics suggest Arsenal and City haven’t been overwhelmingly dominant:

  • Goals: Brighton (13) and Chelsea (10) have scored more than the eight netted by each of the top two.
  • Shots: Arsenal and City rank 10th and 11th respectively in total shots.
  • Box touches: They sit sixth and fifth for touches in the opposition box.

What separates them is defensive solidity: Arsenal (1 conceded) and City (2 conceded) boast two of the league’s best records at the back.


What History Says About Early Leads

Early perfection doesn’t guarantee a title:

  • In English top-flight history, 80 teams have won their first four league games; only 24 went on to win the title.
  • In the Premier League era, 28 sides started 4–0; nine became champions, most recently City in 2023–24.
  • Just six Premier League seasons have seen two or more teams win all of their first four fixtures.
  • Only two clubs have won the title after trailing by five or more points after four games:
  • Manchester United (five times under Sir Alex Ferguson: 1992–93, 1996–97, 1998–99, 2007–08, 2008–09)
  • Manchester City (2020–21 under Pep Guardiola)

So, while the early gap is real, history shows comebacks are rare, but not impossible.


Betting Markets Reflect the Duel

Bookmakers have quickly adjusted, pricing the title as effectively a two-club contest:

  • Arsenal: 8/13 (~61.9% implied probability)
  • Manchester City: 2/1 (~33.3%)
  • Next best: Chelsea 14/1, Liverpool 25/1, United 33/1

This sharp divide reinforces the narrative that the 2026/27 Premier League could hinge on how these two handle the long haul.