Ten months ago, Stephen Robinson was enjoying the high point of his managerial career in Scotland. His St Mirren side had just dismantled Celtic 3-1 at Hampden to win the Premier Sports Cup, securing only the club’s second League Cup title and giving the Paisley support a night few will forget.


That triumph felt like a defining moment for Robinson, whose team combined discipline, physicality and fearless counter-attacking to overcome a Celtic side that had dominated possession but struggled to break down St Mirren’s structure. Marcus Fraser scored inside two minutes, before Jonah Ayunga struck twice after the break to seal a famous victory.


Fast forward to this week, and the mood around Robinson could hardly be more different. Now in charge of Aberdeen, he watched his side lose 1-0 at home to Falkirk on Wednesday, with Ben Krauhaus scoring the only goal in the 73rd minute. It was Aberdeen’s fourth match in six home league fixtures without scoring, deepening concern among supporters after a difficult start to the campaign.


Aberdeen have managed just three wins from their opening 11 Premiership matches and sit ninth in the table, only three points above the relegation places. Robinson admitted afterwards that the performance was not good enough, saying the squad had taken “two steps backwards” after previously believing they were making progress.


Yet Saturday’s Premier Sports Cup semi-final against Rangers offers Robinson an immediate chance to alter the story. Few managers in Scottish football have a stronger record in one-off matches at Hampden, and Robinson is unbeaten in semi-finals at the national stadium as a manager.


Robinson’s big-match record

Robinson’s reputation for preparing underdogs for knockout football is well earned. Last season, his St Mirren team eliminated Derek McInnes’ Hearts on penalties in this same competition before going on to lift the trophy.


His history with McInnes stretches back further. During the 2017-18 campaign, Robinson’s Motherwell reached both major domestic cup finals, beating McInnes’ Aberdeen 3-0 in the League Cup quarter-finals and again in the Scottish Cup semi-finals. Motherwell also defeated Pedro Caixinha’s Rangers 2-0 at the semi-final stage of the League Cup that season.


Twelve months ago, Robinson masterminded a 4-1 Hampden demolition of an impressive Motherwell side managed by Jens Berthel Askou. That was followed by the 3-1 final success over Celtic, a result widely regarded as one of the most comprehensive defeats Celtic have suffered in a Hampden final in more than a decade.


Robinson believes that experience matters. “Every semi or final I have been in, the teams I was with, Motherwell and St Mirren, were not expected to win,” he said. “So I know how to motivate teams, and the staff know how to get teams to believe.”


Aberdeen’s identity problem

The main question is whether this Aberdeen squad can reproduce the intensity, organisation and direct attacking threat that characterised Robinson’s previous cup successes. Those qualities have appeared only intermittently this season.


Rather than presenting a settled identity, Aberdeen have often looked unsure of their strongest team, preferred formation and overall approach. Robinson has frequently made half-time adjustments, while the side has struggled to convert defensive improvement into consistent creativity and goals.


Aberdeen’s defensive record and set-piece work have shown signs of progress compared with last season, but their attacking output remains a major concern. When they have committed more players forward, as they did against Dundee United a week earlier, they have often left themselves exposed at the back.


The absence of defender Mats Knoester is a significant setback. Aberdeen will need every ounce of resilience against a Rangers team that is unbeaten in 10 matches and scoring more freely than when the sides last met at Pittodrie at the end of August.

Aberdeen supporters will also be heavily outnumbered at Hampden, travelling south with limited optimism but hoping Robinson can once again produce an upset in Mount Florida. A victory would be more than another memorable cup result; it could become a turning point in his Aberdeen tenure.


McInnes under pressure

While Robinson is fighting to stabilise Aberdeen, McInnes faces equally intense expectations at Rangers. The Ibrox club have won only one league title, one Scottish Cup and one League Cup in the past 14 years, a return many supporters consider poor given the scale of investment at the club.

McInnes is the latest manager tasked with changing that pattern after two trophyless campaigns. Last season was the first under American ownership, which has backed the squad with substantial spending.


Despite his strong managerial record, including coming close to an extraordinary title win with Hearts last term, McInnes has only one major trophy to his name. That was the League Cup he won with Aberdeen in 2014, during a period when his side regularly reached Hampden but repeatedly ran into dominant Celtic teams.


Rangers have already removed one major rival this season, beating Celtic 3-0 in the quarter-finals at Ibrox. That result helped shift the momentum of their campaign and created a genuine opportunity to win silverware at the first available attempt.

“To get the first trophy would be so important, reinforcing confidence, reinforcing belief,” McInnes said. “Traditionally, semi-finals can be fraught with a lot of nerves and tension and sometimes they’re not the best games, because of what’s at stake.”


A test of nerve

McInnes leads an expensively assembled but relatively inexperienced Rangers squad. They showed signs of nerves during Wednesday’s 2-2 draw at a hostile Tynecastle, where Hearts pushed them hard and Rangers were fortunate to leave with a point.


However, Rangers looked physically dominant and composed in their two Old Firm victories this season. McInnes will demand a similar level of control against Aberdeen, knowing that defeat to a struggling opponent would severely damage confidence and erode the trust he has begun to build with supporters.


Victory would send Rangers into a December final against Hearts or Hibernian, giving McInnes an early opportunity to make a lasting impression at Ibrox. For Robinson, meanwhile, Hampden represents both a refuge from Aberdeen’s league troubles and the toughest possible test of whether his cup-winning magic can return.